NGX Daily Market Summary – Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Market Overview

The Nigerian equities market rebounded modestly today, with the All Share Index (NGX ASI) climbing +0.50% to close at 119,741.23. Year-to-date, the ASI is up 16.63%. Trading activity was robust, with total volume surging to 1.02B shares—nearly double the prior session—though turnover dipped marginally by -0.41% to ₦11.23B. Market breadth was firmly positive (3.26x), powered by 62 advancers versus 19 decliners, as 89 stocks saw upticks in volumes. The day’s top performer was VSPBONDETF, soaring +41.94%, while CILEASING suffered a -10.00% loss. Unusual volume and sector rotation signals point to active repositioning by institutions, especially in select ETFs and agricultural stocks.

Key Trends in Market Breadth

• Advancers: 62 stocks (including several with double-digit gains, showing strong bullish participation)
• Decliners: Just 19, revealing a broad-based rally.
• Volume Trends: Volume surged in 89 companies (notably VSPBONDETF, ELALAHKES, ROYALEX), confirming broad market participation.
• Market sentiment benefited from a 0.25% appreciation of the Naira against the Dollar, ending at 1,533/$.

Top Gainers and Losers – Today

Most Noteworthy Gainer/Losses Insights

• ELLAHLAKES (+10%, RSI: 87.5) not only topped the advancers list, but also shows severe overbought conditions – both a positive momentum signal and a caution flag.
• VSPBONDETF (+41.94%) had an exceptional move with massive volume (over 2x its 90-day average), indicating possible institutional repositioning into bond ETFs.
• GREENWETF (-10%, Unusual Volume) featuring both in top losers and highest unusual volume. Its very low RSI (23.9) and huge volume may point to a capitulation low, potentially yielding a contrarian buy signal for risk-tolerant investors.
• CILEASING (+10%, new bullish momentum) entered the bullish momentum table — consider as a short-term breakout play.

Short-Term Opportunities and Risks – Based on Momentum & RSI

• ELLAHLAKES, NEIMETH, CAVERTON, FTNCOCOA– These four are YTD top gainers with RSI above 70, showing strong momentum but also overbought risks. Suitable for momentum traders but not ideal for fresh long-term entries.
• CILEASING and CHAMS: Experienced a close above the 15DMA with moderate-to-high RSI, suggesting an uptrend confirmed by buying pressure.
• GREENWETF: RSI below 30 (23.9), sizable volume, and a sharp one-day drop (-10%). This ETF is deeply oversold; aggressive traders may consider bounce trades.
• GTCO, STANBIC, NEWGOLD: Each signaled bearish momentum, having closed below 15DMA. GTCO in particular has seen a steady drop in recent days and merits caution.

Contrarian Signals

• GREENWETF: Extreme RSI low (23.9) and -53.4% YTD, coupled with a volume spike. Contrarians could see buying exhaustion and anticipate a technical rebound.
• CUTIX: RSI at 74.8 (overbought), but MACD is only marginally positive, suggesting that momentum could fade soon.
• TRANSPOWER: Closed above 15DMA, but lingering negative YTD (-11%) and MACD readings suggest the move may be a "dead cat bounce” rather than sustainable reversal.

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Stocks)

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 7.51% of institutional trade value and 16.3M shares, nearly half of all institutional volumes in the sector. This clustering can lead to sustained momentum on further buy pressure; a top asset for "follow the flows” strategies.
• ELLAHLAKES: Uncharacteristically high institutional trade value (N584M on 83.5M shares). The exceptional surge (+10%, RSI 87.5) also saw heavy retail interest. Such dual interest could magnify volatility.
• ACCESSCORP, OANDO, JAPAULGOLD: Also within top-5 clusters, warranting attention as these often precede sector-wide moves.

Top 5 YTD Gainers and Losers (YTD Return)

Market Activity Summary: Retail vs Institutional Flow

• Institutional investors accounted for 40.2% of trade count, but controlled 71.9% of volumes and 82.2% of value—implying targeted, large-ticket block trades (notably in ETFs and select agri/logistics stocks).
• Retail activity was more fragmented, comprising nearly 60% of total trades but only 28.1% of volumes and 17.9% of value. This suggests retail investors focused on smaller-cap stocks and speculative targets.
• Top 5 Institutional Trades: ELLAHLAKES, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, OANDO, JAPAULGOLD. Heavy focus on agri/logistics, banks, and energy stocks hints at sector rotation and portfolio rebalancing.
• Top 5 Retail Trades: ELLAHLAKES (again, highly speculative), OANDO, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN. Overlap with institutional names confirms that ELLAHLAKES is a striking "conviction trade” across both classes, usually driving outsized volatility next session.
• Pattern Note: ELLAHLAKES presence in both top institutional and retail traded lists—plus its RSI 87.5 and 10% price surge—signals high probability of near-term volatility.

Stocks With Unusual Volume (Potential Turning Points)

• ROYAL EXCHANGE (ROYALEX): Volume was 31x its 90-day average, rallying +9.65%. High volume on a gain often signals sustainable accumulation.
• THOMASWY: Volume up 19x, also on the top YTD loser list. Rose 10% today; watch for reversal plays.
• GREENWETF & VETBANK ETFs: Both saw over 20x their usual volumes, underscoring unusual institutional rotation.

Traders’ Playbook: Opportunities & Cautions

• Momentum trades: Focus on top gainers with high RSI but watch for reversals (ELLAHLAKES, NEIMETH now technically overbought).
• Rebound Play: Contrarian traders consider GREENWETF and THOMASWY after huge volume washout and deeply oversold RSI.
• Bearish Developments: GTCO and STANBIC, both financial heavyweights, have confirmed momentum breakdowns (below 15DMA). Beware further weakness in banking sector.
• Defensive Buys: Income-seekers should watch UCAP and AFRIPRUD for high dividend, low beta defensive attributes.
• Extreme Momentum Trap: ELLAHLAKES is "crowded” by retail/institutional interest; only suitable for tactical, not strategic, positions until volatility cools.

Summary Table – 15DMA/50DMA Cross: Bullish & Bearish Momentum

Hidden Insights & Actionable Takeaways

• ETF Volatility: Extreme moves and outsized volumes in several ETFs (VSPBONDETF up, GREENWETF down—both with 20x normal volume) indicate major institutional rotation. A sign asset allocation strategies are being rebalanced at mid-year.
• Market breadth is solidly bullish: even as some heavyweight banks fade, overall net advancers and volume upswings point to still-healthy secondary participation.
• RSI Warnings: Multiple top names (ELLAHLAKES, NEIMETH) are statistically overbought. Tread carefully and use trailing stops if chasing extended plays.
• Unusual volume breakouts: When accompanied by trend signals (15DMA cross, positive MACD) like CILEASING, these can signal durable moves.
• Defensive Stocks: High-yield, low-beta names with recent 15DMA crossovers (AFRIPRUD, UCAP) should form the core of any risk-managed, income-focused portfolio.
• Sector rotation: Crop production/agro stocks and select ETFs are clear institutional favorites this session.
• Turnover drop (-0.41%): Despite strong price action and rising volumes, the dip in traded value may suggest more speculative trading and possibly a reluctance by big money to chase at elevated valuations—an early caution for sentiment.

Final Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum Chasers: Prioritize positions where price, volume and momentum align—example: VSPBONDETF, CILEASING, and ELLAHLAKES (with prudent stops!).
• Contrarians/Reversal Seekers: Watch oversold ETFs like GREENWETF and high-volume YTD losers (THOMASWY) for technical bounces.
• Banks: Exercise caution in GTCO and STANBIC (bearish signals and DMA breakdowns, lighter institutional flows). Wait for reversal confirmations if re-entering.
• Income Investors: Accumulate high-yield, low-beta stocks with bullish technicals (AFRIPRUD, UCAP).
• Be mindful of crowded trades (ELLAHLAKES), as they can be magnets for profit-taking or "rug pull” reversals after such steep, rapid gains.

Data-driven market intelligence by your InfoWARE analyst | July 2, 2025

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